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Aalok Devkota

Data Analyst

  • Dec 10, 2014
Investment Strategy

The fund's goal is to outperform the market both in absolute and relative basis.
We agree with Mr. Buffett’s view regarding diversification; "Diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you are doing."
We first identify the current trend using a proprietary macro model that analyzes credit market using 90 Day Euro Futures, global bonds, emerging market bonds, corporate bonds, high yield bonds, various ETFs and few individual stocks. Credit markets have been able to forecast each market turn in the past 30 years (usually months in advance).
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We will hold approximately 13 - 20 stocks during uptrends and may hold 4 -10 stocks during downtrends.
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We like growth stocks in uptrends and mature consumer staples in downtrends. Additionally, we may use inverse-ETFs during downtrends or to hedge our positions.
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In our historical testing we have noticed that close to 50% of the breakouts fail thus we have strict stop-loss rules and our initial portfolio weights are determined so that under normal conditions we never lose more than 2% on our initial position.
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We may average up on a promising stock but WE NEVER AVERAGE DOWN.
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All the stocks that we own must be traded in one of the US exchanges (ADRs are allowed).
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Our initial position will not be more than 10% of the portfolio. No single position can be above 20% of the portfolio at any time.
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We believe stock prices follow companies' earnings, and those companies that can deliver durable multiyear earnings growth provide attractive investment opportunities.
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Quality of earnings is very important for us, so the companies need to have significant earnings in cash vs. receivables.
·         As a result, our investment approach seeks firms we believe are poised for sustained, above-average earnings growth that is not accurately reflected in the stocks' current valuation. ·        
We emphasize companies that have competent/honest management team (a must), are leaders in their industry with a strong competitive position, high returns on capital and solid free-cash-flow generation.
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A stock is sold if the company’s fundamentals decline, the valuation becomes excessive, or the position becomes too large. If a company and the stock are performing as expected our holding period is forever.
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Funds
(AMF) adevkota's Mutual Fund
MODEL INCEPTION (12/10/2014) AVG. ANNUAL RETURN S&P TOTAL RETURN Actions
3+ YRS 23.01% 10.56% View Fund Stats Track Fund
RETURN PERIOD (As Of: 03/31/2018) AVG. ANNUAL RETURN S&P TOTAL RETURN ACHIEVEMENTS
3 YRS 19.67% 11.16% Beat the 75th percentile of mutual funds over 3 years.  
1 YR 24.80% 15.43% Beat the 75th percentile of mutual funds over 1 year.  
Show Fund Strategy
Click Here to View More Information About This Fund.
Achievements
  • AMF Beat the 75th percentile of mutual funds over 3 years.
    Mar 31, 2018
  • AMF Beat the 75th percentile of mutual funds over 1 year.
    Mar 31, 2018
Articles

adevkota's Mutual Fund

AMF | Price History
AMF | Fund Positions by Styles
Color Name Allocation Today
Large Cap : Growth 54.88% -0.14%
Unclassified Market Cap : Unclassified Style 14.58% -0.73%
Large Cap : Value 8.16% 0.18%
Mid Cap : Growth 5.97% 0.31%
Large Cap : Blend 5.38% 0.46%
Mid Cap : Blend 4.46% -0.92%
Mid Cap : Value 3.40% 0.29%
Small Cap : Value 3.01% 1.41%
AMF | Fund Information

The information below pertains to model data only.

Fund Manager: Total Model Net Assets:
Aalok Devkota $1,980,507.57
Inception: Ticker Symbol: # of Securities:
December 10, 2014 AMF 17
Description:

Diversified trend following fund while minimizing draw downs. Looking for companies that are leaders in their sector with positive sales and earnings growth, reinvestment opportunities and a strong balance sheet. I do not like to buy any stock just so I can be diversified, the stock has to meet all my conditions. I will be perfectly happy owning Vanguard funds, Berkshire, Markel and Costco so any new investment has to be better than these. I use inverse SPY (SDS and SH) to hedge when I feel that the market may go down. If I have money left and can't find a stock to buy that meets all my conditions, I may buy great defensive stocks like JNJ, PEP, STZ.

AMF | Turnover
Last Month 46.38%
Last 3 Months 86.31%
Last 6 Months 141.69%
Last 12 Months 220.69%
AMF | 5 Most and Least Profitable
5 MOST PROFITABLE 5 LEAST PROFITABLE
Position Symbol Gains
1 TAL $302,491.45
2 TWTR $102,416.67
3 MOMO $74,035.24
4 NFLX $73,726.26
5 MSFT $63,176.61
Position Symbol Gains
1 AAOI -$40,051.31
2 AMD -$17,114.65
3 SMTC -$15,801.58
4 OIH -$14,583.18
5 EXPR -$13,688.51
AMF | Skill Metrics
All Positions
Winning % 53.85%
Avg. Gain/Loss Ratio 3.48
AMF | Fund Positions by Sectors and Industries
Color Name Allocation Today
Technology 50.48% 0.16%
Financials 13.86% 0.16%
Consumer Discretionary 13.02% -0.55%
Industrials 9.21% -0.86%
Energy 5.23% 0.00%
Consumer Staples 5.12% -0.11%
Health Care 2.93% 0.36%
AMF | Recent Returns vs Major Indexes
Beating Today MTD QTD YTD
AMF -1.21% 6.15% 6.15% 13.42%
S&P 500 -0.68% 2.57% 2.57% 0.00%
NASDAQ -1.05% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
AMF | Recent Returns
Period Returns S&P 500 Returns Returns VS S&P 500
Last 7 Days 3.65% 2.53% 1.12%
Last 30 Days 2.56% -0.04% 2.60%
Last 3 Months 9.55% -2.73% 12.28%
Last 6 Months 14.29% 6.18% 8.11%
Last 12 Months 33.71% 17.94% 15.77%
Last 2 Years 60.73% 34.72% 26.01%
Last 3 Years 79.31% 38.57% 40.74%
Since Inception 100.47% 43.31% 57.16%
(Annualized) 23.03% 11.32% 11.71%
Data as of: 04/18/2018
AMF | Alpha/Beta VS. S&P 500
Alpha 0%
Beta 0
R-Squared 0
AMF | 5 Best and Worst Returns
5 BEST 5 WORST
Position Symbol Inception Return
1 MSFT 118.33%
2 TWTR 67.16%
3 MA 52.25%
4 MKL 46.40%
5 BZUN 26.77%
Position Symbol Inception Return
1 CMG 0.06%
2 MU 0.25%
3 GSK 0.78%
4 VLO 0.82%
5 CRM 0.82%